Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LLegacyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 14 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Magnusoften banned
Gunnar · 11 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 516 bans
Mars
310 picks · 449 bans
Techies
297 picks · 224 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 167 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:38
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:46.
Game 2prediction correct33:16
nouns 71%Legacy 29%
The model gave 71% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:20.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2