Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionDDDegen Dinosloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IRLD2win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Degen Dinos
No games played over 6 months.
IRLD2
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
382 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 514 bans
Mars
310 picks · 447 bans
Techies
296 picks · 223 bans
Hoodwink
287 picks · 164 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 527 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Degen Dinos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% IRLD2
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:13
Degen Dinos 39%IRLD2 61%
The model gave 61% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by Degen Dinos in 32:45.
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Degen Dinos 39%IRLD2 61%
The model gave 61% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by IRLD2 in 38:38.
Game 3prediction correct43:27
Degen Dinos 39%IRLD2 61%
The model gave 61% on IRLD2 — the game was taken by IRLD2 in 46:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteIRLD2 · 61%
Series resultIRLD2 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3