RES Regional Series: EU #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Montewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
Snapfire
Daze · 25 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 23 games
Lion
Riddys · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 16 games
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Pugnaoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 13 games
Monte
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
EcNart · 4 games
Razoroften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 507 bans
Mars
310 picks · 439 bans
Techies
295 picks · 220 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
279 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
276 picks · 514 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:30
Natus Vincere Junior 62%Monte 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Monte in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svengotthejuice
GyrocopterCrystallize
SnapfireNiku
LinaMoonlight
Broodmotherpma
SlardarInfernal
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
MiranaEcNart
Shadow ShamanDaze
BatriderQBFY
Game 2prediction missed7:31
Natus Vincere Junior 64%Monte 36%
The model gave 64% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Monte in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
AlchemistCrystallize
PangolierNiku
LinaMoonlight
Centaur Warrunnerpma
BeastmasterInfernal
SnapfireDaze
EnigmaEcNart
GrimstrokeRiddys
TinyQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 76%
Series resultMonte 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2