MOUZ vs GHOSTIKLENOVO — prediction ELЗК · Dota 2

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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

MOUZwin 2:0

series probability

60%40%

probability at match start · final 2:0

GGHOSTIKLENOVOloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

No games played over 6 months.

GHOSTIKLENOVO

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Lion

383 picks · 349 bans

52%

Vengeful Spirit

335 picks · 326 bans

52%

Centaur Warrunner

326 picks · 507 bans

56%

Mars

310 picks · 439 bans

54%

Techies

295 picks · 220 bans

54%

Hoodwink

285 picks · 162 bans

51%

Pangolier

279 picks · 421 bans

51%

Batrider

276 picks · 514 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% MOUZ

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total60% MOUZ

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct24:5

MOUZ 55%GHOSTIKLENOVO 45%

The model gave 55% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:49.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo