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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Brightwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Go alongloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Bright

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Irving · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Irving · 8 games
63%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Irving · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
RedPanda · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Undyne_ · 5 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
phoenix · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ulu · 5 games
40%

Go along

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Killa · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
TK · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 2 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Killa · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
TK · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Storm · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 348 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
336 picks · 324 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 503 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
310 picks · 437 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
293 picks · 217 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
283 picks · 161 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
278 picks · 422 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 510 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Go along
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Team Bright
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:11
Team Bright 67%Go along 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 21:34.
Game 2prediction correct29:1
Team Bright 67%Go along 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Bright — the game was taken by Team Bright in 17:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bright · 67%
Series resultTeam Bright 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2