Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Darkhorseloss 1:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TGthe goal of all life is deathwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Darkhorse
No games played over 6 months.
the goal of all life is death
Ember Spiritoften banned
blessing · 3 games
Techies
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Tusk
omoxiloyi · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Doomoften banned
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Lion
omoxiloyi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
blessing · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
380 picks · 347 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 324 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 504 bans
Mars
311 picks · 432 bans
Techies
292 picks · 214 bans
Hoodwink
282 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
279 picks · 423 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 506 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% the goal of all life is death
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:9
Darkhorse 39%the goal of all life is death 61%
The model gave 61% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 33:24.
Game 2prediction correct19:23
Darkhorse 39%the goal of all life is death 61%
The model gave 61% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 33:41.
Game 3prediction correct35:19
Darkhorse 39%the goal of all life is death 61%
The model gave 61% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death in 46:40.
Model check result
Model favoritethe goal of all life is death · 61%
Series resultthe goal of all life is death 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3