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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 3:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 36 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
72%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
80%

BETBOOM TEAM

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 28 games
75%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MieRo · 27 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Save- · 23 games
74%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 18 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 17 games
59%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
76%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Save- · 16 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
380 picks · 346 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 324 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 504 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 432 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
288 picks · 213 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
282 picks · 159 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 424 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
271 picks · 504 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:8
Team Falcons 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
41% · 152 games57% · 210 games
Faceless VoidNightfall
Faceless Void
Doom
DoomATF
52% · 393 games54% · 318 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
45% · 308 games50% · 367 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
46% · 415 games54% · 220 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
50% · 238 games52% · 391 game
TechiesSave-
Techies
Game 2prediction correct33:24
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
53% · 68 games46% · 155 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 279 games54% · 318 games
TimbersawgpK~
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomATF
50% · 232 games49% · 143 games
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
44% · 431 game53% · 411 games
TechiesSave-
Techies
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
49% · 122 games56% · 105 games
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct38:26
Team Falcons 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 58:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
42% · 58 games54% · 58 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 141 game49% · 195 games
MorphlingNightfall
Morphling
Sven
SvenSkiter
53% · 87 games56% · 101 game
KunkkaMieRo
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
50% · 250 games48% · 169 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
45% · 124 games50% · 137 games
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 68%
Series resultTeam Falcons 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3