Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TiltedBoyswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEEmpyrean Esportloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Empyrean Esport
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 501 bans
Mars
307 picks · 432 bans
Techies
287 picks · 212 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 159 bans
Pangolier
277 picks · 423 bans
Batrider
271 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Empyrean Esport
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:28
TiltedBoys 56%Empyrean Esport 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 41:05.
Game 2prediction correct45:23
TiltedBoys 56%Empyrean Esport 44%
The model gave 56% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 31:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 56%
Series resultTiltedBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2