Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
x5 Gamingloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KKaiserwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
x5 Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Kaiser
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Argius · 3 games
Bristleback
Valquiria · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Argius · 2 games
Muerta
d1smar · 2 games
Timbersawoften banned
TaO · 2 games
Tusk
Cara · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Valquiria · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 501 bans
Mars
305 picks · 430 bans
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
Hoodwink
281 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 420 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Kaiser
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:28
x5 Gaming 47%Kaiser 53%
The model gave 53% on Kaiser — the game was taken by Kaiser in 45:00.
Game 2prediction correct10:28
x5 Gaming 47%Kaiser 53%
The model gave 53% on Kaiser — the game was taken by Kaiser in 28:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaiser · 53%
Series resultKaiser 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2