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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
76%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Larl · 12 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 13 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 11 games
91%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 11 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 10 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 10 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 7 games
71%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 7 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 498 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 430 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 420 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 499 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:42
Team Spirit 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
50% · 230 games54% · 205 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
52% · 83 games45% · 52 games
ZeusXm
Zeus
Mars
MarsCollapse
48% · 173 games51% · 231 game
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Lion
LionMira
49% · 180 games43% · 153 games
HoodwinkXinQ
Hoodwink
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
57% · 154 games50% · 179 games
TerrorbladeDy
Terrorblade
Game 2prediction correct27:15
Team Spirit 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
53% · 108 games49% · 45 games
Anti-MageAme
Anti-Mage
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
52% · 161 game52% · 95 games
EnigmaXxs
Enigma
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
56% · 128 games47% · 222 games
Primal BeastXm
Primal Beast
Lion
LionMira
49% · 171 game47% · 194 games
TinyXinQ
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
48% · 148 games48% · 160 games
TerrorbladeDy
Terrorblade
Game 3prediction missed17:28
Team Spirit 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
52% · 33 games55% · 75 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Razor
RazorLarl
51% · 66 games46% · 29 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
49% · 125 games49% · 168 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
46% · 111 games55% · 63 games
Elder TitanDy
Elder Titan
Lion
LionMira
48% · 132 games51% · 132 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3