Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionNNNice NPwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Matreshka Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nice NP
No games played over 6 months.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 322 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 498 bans
Mars
303 picks · 429 bans
Techies
286 picks · 210 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 419 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nice NP 49%Matreshka Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Nice NP.
Game 2prediction missed
Nice NP 49%Matreshka Team 51%
The model gave 51% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Nice NP.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 51%
Series resultNice NP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2