Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Estar Backswin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Maialoss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Techies
Michael · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
StingeR · 4 games
Dark Willow
Michael · 3 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 3 games
Team Maia
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 495 bans
Mars
303 picks · 427 bans
Techies
286 picks · 208 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 418 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Estar Backs 85%Team Maia 15%
The model gave 85% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs.
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 85%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1