Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 2 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
antoha · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 1 game
Chenoften banned
dark · 1 game
Clockwerk
dark · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
dark · 1 game
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Tiny
Groom · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 346 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 493 bans
Mars
303 picks · 426 bans
Techies
286 picks · 206 bans
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
275 picks · 417 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 494 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:29
Matreshka Team 74%V1dar Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 41:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 74%
Series resultMatreshka Team 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1