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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Lavawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mjz · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 2 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Mnz · 2 games
50%

Lava

Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
JP · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
JP · 1 game
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Accel · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Demon · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 343 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 488 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
303 picks · 421 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 203 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
280 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
275 picks · 413 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 492 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:8
Infinity Esports 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 26:21.
Game 2prediction missed18:37
Infinity Esports 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 44:30.
Game 3prediction correct29:10
Infinity Esports 35%Lava 65%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 36:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 65%
Series resultLava 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3