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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 33 games
85%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 26 games
85%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
74%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 21 game
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 19 games
79%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 18 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
57%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 14 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 343 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 486 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
301 picks · 419 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 202 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
278 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 411 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 488 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:11
Team Falcons 73%Shopify Rebellion 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
48% · 63 games51% · 110 games
LunaArteezy
Luna
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
57% · 165 games50% · 115 games
Void SpiritYopaj
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
57% · 136 games48% · 185 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCr1t-
56% · 111 games46% · 98 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
26% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct26:10
Team Falcons 73%Shopify Rebellion 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
53% · 62 games53% · 29 games
Outworld DestroyerYopaj
Outworld Destroyer
Doom
DoomATF
47% · 128 games52% · 157 games
Naga SirenArteezy
Naga Siren
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
47% · 97 games46% · 156 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
57% · 80 games51% · 192 games
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
44% · 167 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2