Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Midas Clubwin 2:1series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Midas Club
No games played over 6 months.
Lava
Alchemistoften banned
JP · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
Luna
JP · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Tusk
Demon · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 343 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 484 bans
Mars
301 picks · 415 bans
Techies
286 picks · 201 bans
Hoodwink
278 picks · 158 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Midas Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:41
Midas Club 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Midas Club in 33:19.
Game 2prediction correct36:17
Midas Club 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 38:28.
Game 3prediction missed26:21
Midas Club 25%Lava 75%
The model gave 75% on Lava — the game was taken by Midas Club in 51:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 75%
Series resultMidas Club 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3