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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 16 games
69%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 14 games
43%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 12 games
67%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 20 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
81%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 14 games
79%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Larl · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 342 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 481 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
301 picks · 412 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
286 picks · 201 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 158 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 409 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 484 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
OG 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
56% · 141 game57% · 145 games
Naga SirenYatoro
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
52% · 79 games58% · 89 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Zeus
Zeusbzm
33% · 47 games53% · 240 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
41% · 127 games53% · 137 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Rubick
RubickCeb
44% · 443 games51% · 226 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed31:20
OG 34%Team Spirit 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorTimado
47% · 105 games50% · 98 games
SvenYatoro
Sven
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
49% · 104 games55% · 164 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWisper
57% · 123 games45% · 102 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyAri
47% · 194 games50% · 77 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Io
IoCeb
49% · 89 games51% · 174 games
TerrorbladeMira
Terrorblade
Game 3prediction correct18:37
OG 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTimado
55% · 150 games53% · 148 games
TerrorbladeYatoro
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
45% · 241 game52% · 189 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
44% · 152 games50% · 199 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusWisper
57% · 230 games45% · 331 game
RubickMira
Rubick
Leshrac
LeshracCeb
50% · 139 games48% · 45 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3