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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Mr. Luck · 23 games
61%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 19 games
53%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 13 games
31%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
LeBronDota · 12 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
36%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 10 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mr. Luck · 9 games
33%

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 342 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 478 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
299 picks · 410 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
284 picks · 199 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 157 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 408 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
270 picks · 479 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
MarsBet Team 51%Dandelions 49%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 36:02.
Game 2prediction correct39:34
MarsBet Team 51%Dandelions 49%
The model gave 51% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 52:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 51%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2