Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Barsloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASAKURAwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bars
No games played over 6 months.
ASAKURA
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 342 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 478 bans
Mars
299 picks · 409 bans
Techies
284 picks · 199 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Team Bars 26%ASAKURA 74%
The model gave 74% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 34:51.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Bars 26%ASAKURA 74%
The model gave 74% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 74%
Series resultASAKURA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2