Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Eagleloss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Darkhorsewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eagle
Muerta
Tz. · 5 games
Morphlingoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
mercy · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mercy · 2 games
Dark Willow
mercy · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Darkhorse
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 342 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 478 bans
Mars
299 picks · 409 bans
Techies
284 picks · 199 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
Batrider
270 picks · 479 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Eagle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Eagle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Eagle 54%Darkhorse 46%
The model gave 54% on Eagle — the game was taken by Eagle.
Game 2prediction missed
Eagle 54%Darkhorse 46%
The model gave 54% on Eagle — the game was taken by Darkhorse.
Game 3prediction missed
Eagle 54%Darkhorse 46%
The model gave 54% on Eagle — the game was taken by Darkhorse.
Model check result
Model favoriteEagle · 54%
Series resultDarkhorse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3