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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 17 games
47%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
67%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 9 games
78%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 9 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
372 picks · 342 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 320 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 476 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
298 picks · 408 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
283 picks · 198 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
269 picks · 479 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:37
Shopify Rebellion 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 51:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenArteezy
52% · 26 games52% · 54 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
44% · 180 games54% · 143 games
DoomXxs
Doom
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
53% · 129 games60% · 78 games
Void SpiritXm
Void Spirit
Lion
LionThiolicor
47% · 164 games45% · 108 games
TerrorbladeDy
Terrorblade
47% · 116 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed25:7
Shopify Rebellion 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 22:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
50% · 132 games51% · 125 games
Dragon KnightXxs
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetYopaj
52% · 105 games42% · 135 games
Templar AssassinXm
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
46% · 167 games47% · 45 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Mirana
MiranaThiolicor
57% · 169 games55% · 157 games
TechiesXinQ
Techies
47% · 111 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct11:31
Shopify Rebellion 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArteezy
44% · 107 games41% · 13 games
ViperXm
Viper
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerYopaj
47% · 29 games58% · 107 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Slardar
SlardarSabeRLight-
50% · 26 games48% · 110 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
49% · 229 games51% · 82 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
58% · 79 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 68%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3