Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Lavawin 1:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Infamousloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Alchemistoften banned
JP · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Accel · 1 game
Bounty Hunter
Leostyle · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
Luna
JP · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Accel · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
Tusk
Demon · 1 game
Infamous
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 340 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
326 picks · 475 bans
Mars
298 picks · 404 bans
Techies
283 picks · 197 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 155 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 407 bans
Batrider
269 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total66% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Lava 66%Infamous 34%
The model gave 66% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 37:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 66%
Series resultLava 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1