Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
TiltedBoysloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The Cutwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 3 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Techies
bgod · 2 games
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
The Cut
Luna
Scourge McDuck · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 340 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 473 bans
Mars
297 picks · 403 bans
Techies
282 picks · 197 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 152 bans
Pangolier
271 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
268 picks · 193 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total57% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
TiltedBoys 57%The Cut 43%
The model gave 57% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by The Cut.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 57%
Series resultThe Cut 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1