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Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
One Moveloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

One Move

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 7 games
14%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ainkrad · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Lion
Lion
queezy · 5 games
40%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
40%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
v1olent- · 5 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Xakoda · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 339 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 474 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
297 picks · 398 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
280 picks · 195 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
276 picks · 151 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 404 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
265 picks · 470 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength65% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:10
ASAKURA 58%One Move 42%
The model gave 58% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 35:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 58%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1