Elite League. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 1:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 7 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Bob · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
cml · 5 games
Lion
Shanks · 4 games
Techies
cml · 4 games
Tusk
Shanks · 4 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
Tino- · 3 games
Clockwerk
cml · 3 games
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 13 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Bombi · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
JG · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 339 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 474 bans
Mars
297 picks · 398 bans
Techies
280 picks · 195 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 151 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
265 picks · 470 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Execration 44%Neon Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1