DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 26 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
Marssignature
Wisper · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 13 games
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 13 games
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
Iosignature
Ceb · 11 games
Pucksignature
bzm · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 339 bans
Vengeful Spirit
334 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
323 picks · 472 bans
Mars
294 picks · 398 bans
Techies
280 picks · 195 bans
Hoodwink
276 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 403 bans
Batrider
265 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:29
Aurora Gaming 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:07.
Game 2prediction correct44:30
Aurora Gaming 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:28:18.
Game 3prediction correct27:22
Aurora Gaming 23%OG 77%
The model gave 77% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 77%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3