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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 23 games
65%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 13 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 13 games
69%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 10 games
60%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 16 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 13 games
62%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
370 picks · 338 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
332 picks · 318 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 472 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
290 picks · 397 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
278 picks · 193 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
272 picks · 148 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
270 picks · 402 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
263 picks · 460 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 66%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:35
OG 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
52% · 89 games49% · 101 game
SvenArteezy
Sven
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
41% · 107 games50% · 22 games
Outworld DestroyerYopaj
Outworld Destroyer
Omniknight
OmniknightWisper
50% · 12 games44% · 187 games
TinySabeRLight-
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal Beastbzm
43% · 147 games65% · 107 games
MiranaThiolicor
Mirana
Io
IoCeb
53% · 62 games
Game 2prediction missed30:9
OG 46%Shopify Rebellion 54%
The model gave 54% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenTimado
50% · 28 games58% · 166 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
48% · 117 games56% · 213 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
42% · 106 games48% · 49 games
SpectreArteezy
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusWisper
48% · 175 games47% · 191 game
LionThiolicor
Lion
Batrider
BatriderCeb
51% · 193 games
Game 3prediction missed30:11
OG 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by OG in 39:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
42% · 103 games48% · 83 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTimado
54% · 102 games55% · 61 game
LeshracYopaj
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarWisper
56% · 10 games51% · 110 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
42% · 69 games62% · 104 games
MiranaThiolicor
Mirana
Enigma
EnigmaCeb
45% · 74 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 53%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3