DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 10 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 8 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 8 games
Batridersignature
XinQ · 7 games
Hoodwink
XinQ · 7 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 7 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 338 bans
Vengeful Spirit
331 picks · 318 bans
Centaur Warrunner
317 picks · 472 bans
Mars
289 picks · 395 bans
Techies
277 picks · 192 bans
Hoodwink
271 picks · 148 bans
Pangolier
270 picks · 404 bans
Tiny
264 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
Xtreme Gaming 85%Aurora Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:57.
Game 2prediction missed3:21
Xtreme Gaming 85%Aurora Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 42:31.
Game 3prediction correct20:9
Xtreme Gaming 85%Aurora Gaming 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 26:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3