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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
82%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 17 games
71%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 14 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Larl · 11 games
55%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 21 game
57%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 18 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 338 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
331 picks · 318 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
315 picks · 474 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
288 picks · 394 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
277 picks · 191 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 402 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
271 picks · 148 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
264 picks · 188 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:35
Team Spirit 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
43% · 30 games58% · 27 games
LeshracQuinn
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
47% · 93 games50% · 50 games
Weaverdyrachyo
Weaver
Omniknight
OmniknightCollapse
63% · 16 games50% · 93 games
MarsAce
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 167 games48% · 130 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
48% · 82 games53% · 88 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Game 2prediction missed42:34
Team Spirit 60%Gaimin Gladiators 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:00:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
53% · 187 games48% · 76 games
LinaQuinn
Lina
Razor
RazorLarl
53% · 73 games52% · 90 games
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
Troll Warlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
50% · 144 games50% · 254 games
Primal BeastAce
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
45% · 237 games50% · 205 games
UndyingSeleri
Undying
Lion
LionMira
51% · 140 games49% · 156 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2