DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 31 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
Lunasignature
Skiter · 18 games
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 17 games
Team Spirit
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 17 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 13 games
Tiny
Larl · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
372 picks · 337 bans
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 473 bans
Mars
285 picks · 391 bans
Techies
274 picks · 189 bans
Pangolier
273 picks · 401 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 147 bans
Tiny
262 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:17
Team Falcons 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
LunaYatoro
PuckMalr1ne
Death ProphetLarl
TinyATF
MarsCollapse
Crystal MaidenSneyking
TechiesMira
Shadow DemonCr1t-
BaneMiposhka
Game 2prediction correct37:35
Team Falcons 51%Team Spirit 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:00:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckMalr1ne
LinaLarl
SvenSkiter
LifestealerYatoro
Centaur WarrunnerATF
MarsCollapse
MiranaSneyking
BatriderMiposhka
TinyCr1t-
LionMira
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2