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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 20 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 14 games
64%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 14 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
69%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 11 games
64%
Sven
Sven
Arteezy · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
373 picks · 337 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 471 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
283 picks · 390 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
274 picks · 189 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
273 picks · 399 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 147 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
262 picks · 190 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:38
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc Wardendyrachyo
43% · 27 games52% · 147 games
Templar AssassinYopaj
Templar Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawQuinn
49% · 173 games54% · 131 game
WindrangerArteezy
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarAce
51% · 32 games53% · 87 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
49% · 144 games50% · 150 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Undying
UndyingSeleri
46% · 139 games
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Shopify Rebellion 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
54% · 56 games58% · 144 games
MedusaArteezy
Medusa
Magnus
MagnusAce
48% · 125 games50% · 28 games
Outworld DestroyerYopaj
Outworld Destroyer
Void Spirit
Void SpiritQuinn
52% · 69 games53% · 144 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Windranger
WindrangertOfu
51% · 112 games43% · 188 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
41% · 142 games
Game 3prediction missed23:22
Gaimin Gladiators 55%Shopify Rebellion 45%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
53% · 127 games56% · 163 games
PuckYopaj
Puck
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
49% · 84 games50% · 82 games
LifestealerArteezy
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
51% · 177 games56% · 140 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Muerta
MuertatOfu
46% · 68 games40% · 230 games
RubickThiolicor
Rubick
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
49% · 159 games
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3