DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 12 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
373 picks · 337 bans
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
319 picks · 469 bans
Mars
281 picks · 389 bans
Techies
274 picks · 189 bans
Pangolier
273 picks · 399 bans
Hoodwink
269 picks · 147 bans
Tiny
260 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 35%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:28
Team Spirit 89%Aurora Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:04.
Game 2prediction correct25:15
Team Spirit 89%Aurora Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:22.
Game 3prediction correct29:19
Team Spirit 89%Aurora Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3