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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 13 games
54%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 11 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 10 games
60%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 10 games
70%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 31 game
84%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
62%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 20 games
85%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
74%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 19 games
79%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 18 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 17 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 336 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
327 picks · 317 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 470 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
279 picks · 389 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
274 picks · 189 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 399 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
269 picks · 145 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
260 picks · 190 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 64%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:35
OG 33%Team Falcons 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
51% · 94 games47% · 23 games
HuskarMalr1ne
Huskar
Puck
Puckbzm
57% · 176 games47% · 125 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsWisper
54% · 129 games47% · 305 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderAri
51% · 233 games50% · 125 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeb
42% · 141 game53% · 195 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct34:20
OG 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracbzm
53% · 110 games51% · 108 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
41% · 62 games51% · 187 games
DoomATF
Doom
Mars
MarsWisper
48% · 159 games55% · 118 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Windranger
WindrangerCeb
49% · 176 games56% · 216 games
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Tiny
TinyAri
47% · 213 games47% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2