DreamLeague Season 22 · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Arteezy · 10 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
374 picks · 335 bans
Vengeful Spirit
325 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 467 bans
Mars
276 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 401 bans
Techies
271 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
267 picks · 145 bans
Tiny
259 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:5
Shopify Rebellion 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:47.
Game 2prediction correct29:15
Shopify Rebellion 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:04:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 70%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2