?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 12 games
75%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
100%
Batrider
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%

Shopify Rebellion

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
67%
Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Arteezy · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 331 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 480 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 317 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 405 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
274 picks · 379 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
269 picks · 187 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
263 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
261 picks · 190 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 68%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:33
Xtreme Gaming 51%Shopify Rebellion 49%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:07:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
54% · 137 games48% · 134 games
TerrorbladeArteezy
Terrorblade
Sniper
SniperXm
59% · 9 games52% · 113 games
KunkkaYopaj
Kunkka
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 99 games48% · 220 games
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
53% · 131 game51% · 26 games
Night StalkerSabeRLight-
Night Stalker
Phoenix
PhoenixDy
46% · 117 games
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Xtreme Gaming 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeAme
48% · 129 games52% · 26 games
Lone DruidArteezy
Lone Druid
Huskar
HuskarXm
43% · 10 games46% · 138 games
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
50% · 153 games57% · 125 games
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
Dark Seer
Pudge
PudgeXinQ
55% · 24 games54% · 161 game
BatriderThiolicor
Batrider
Undying
UndyingDy
42% · 134 games
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 54%
Accuracy by game2 of 2