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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
1w Teamloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 19 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 13 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Sven
Svensignature
Pure~ · 11 games
73%

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
44%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 17 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 16 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Cloud · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 329 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 478 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 316 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 403 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
273 picks · 374 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
268 picks · 186 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
262 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
256 picks · 190 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 20%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Tundra Esports 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
54% · 136 games52% · 98 games
Naga SirenMunkushi~
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
Brewmasterlaise
46% · 88 games63% · 146 games
PuckChira JUNIOR
Puck
Tiny
TinyTopson
49% · 186 games45% · 136 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
41% · 118 games48% · 122 games
PhoenixRESPECT
Phoenix
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
56% · 43 games47% · 69 games
Muertaswedenstrong
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed28:30
Tundra Esports 59%1w Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by 1w Team in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPure~
50% · 311 games51% · 105 games
Anti-MageMunkushi~
Anti-Mage
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightlaise
48% · 146 games57% · 221 game
MagnusCloud
Magnus
Rubick
RubickTopson
42% · 493 games49% · 291 game
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
53% · 41 game49% · 372 games
TechiesRESPECT
Techies
Lion
Lion9Class
52% · 225 games53% · 227 games
Terrorbladeswedenstrong
Terrorblade
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2