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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
60%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
iNSaNiA · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
BOOM · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 329 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 478 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
330 picks · 316 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 403 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
273 picks · 374 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
268 picks · 186 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
262 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
256 picks · 190 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:11
Team Liquid 54%Team Secret 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 19:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
51% · 221 game49% · 94 games
UrsaCrystallis
Ursa
Visage
Visage33
50% · 61 game51% · 224 games
TimbersawBOOM
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyNisha
52% · 186 games47% · 247 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Doom
DoomBoxi
52% · 266 games46% · 253 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
53% · 84 games
Game 2prediction missed13:40
Team Liquid 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Secret in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
49% · 178 games48% · 70 games
MuertaCrystallis
Muerta
Leshrac
Leshrac33
47% · 47 games49% · 199 games
MagnusBOOM
Magnus
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
51% · 177 games53% · 86 games
IoPuppey
Io
Tiny
TinyBoxi
46% · 132 games48% · 277 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
59% · 98 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2