DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
Batridersignature
XinQ · 6 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 6 games
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
1w Team
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
Tiny
swedenstrong · 17 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
376 picks · 327 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 480 bans
Vengeful Spirit
329 picks · 316 bans
Pangolier
276 picks · 400 bans
Mars
269 picks · 371 bans
Techies
266 picks · 184 bans
Hoodwink
261 picks · 144 bans
Tiny
256 picks · 187 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 22%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:31
Xtreme Gaming 58%1w Team 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 56:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAme
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
SlardarXxs
PangolierChira JUNIOR
GrimstrokeXinQ
MarsCloud
Bounty HunterXm
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
UndyingDy
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Game 2prediction missed8:35
Xtreme Gaming 61%1w Team 39%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by 1w Team in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinAme
Naga SirenMunkushi~
TidehunterXxs
LeshracChira JUNIOR
PugnaXm
MarsCloud
MuertaXinQ
Ioswedenstrong
Crystal MaidenDy
DisruptorRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2