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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
47%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 476 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 393 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
263 picks · 358 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
263 picks · 180 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Team Spirit 84%1w Team 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYatoro
53% · 88 games40% · 156 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Lina
LinaLarl
44% · 50 games49% · 68 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
47% · 193 games53% · 115 games
TidehunterCloud
Tidehunter
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiposhka
52% · 81 game47% · 204 games
Tinyswedenstrong
Tiny
Techies
TechiesMira
55% · 238 games57% · 107 games
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct
Team Spirit 97%1w Team 3%
The model gave 97% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 97%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2