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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Razor
Razoroften banned
Crystallis · 16 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
BOOM · 14 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Puppey · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 10 games
80%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%
Doom
Doomsignature
yamich · 10 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 9 games
22%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 19 games
79%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 12 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 11 games
64%
Sven
Svensignature
Pure~ · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
369 picks · 324 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 474 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
274 picks · 393 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
263 picks · 178 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 357 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:24
Team Secret 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCrystallis
50% · 137 games48% · 63 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Mars
MarsBOOM
51% · 150 games46% · 93 games
Dragon KnightTopson
Dragon Knight
Mirana
MiranaEkki
59% · 125 games45% · 116 games
Primal Beastlaise
Primal Beast
Elder Titan
Elder TitanPuppey
54% · 61 game47% · 85 games
Shadow DemonWhitemon
Shadow Demon
46% · 116 games
Lion9Class
Lion
Game 2prediction missed42:29
Team Secret 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
51% · 89 games46% · 80 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBOOM
53% · 209 games45% · 144 games
Timbersawlaise
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaEkki
56% · 125 games48% · 117 games
PuckTopson
Puck
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPuppey
55% · 190 games44% · 166 games
UndyingWhitemon
Undying
49% · 106 games
Lion9Class
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2