DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 16 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
367 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 479 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
273 picks · 388 bans
Techies
260 picks · 176 bans
Mars
258 picks · 351 bans
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 29%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Shopify Rebellion 87%1w Team 13%
The model gave 87% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion.
Game 2prediction correct38:7
Shopify Rebellion 73%1w Team 27%
The model gave 73% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 30:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingArteezy
AlchemistMunkushi~
PuckYopaj
Void SpiritChira JUNIOR
Centaur WarrunnerSabeRLight-
MagnusCloud
TechiesThiolicor
Rubickswedenstrong
51% · 72 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 87%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2