DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 19 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 11 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 11 games
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
Alchemistsignature
Pure~ · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
328 picks · 479 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 388 bans
Techies
260 picks · 174 bans
Mars
258 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 471 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
Aurora Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:37.
Game 2prediction correct27:20
Aurora Gaming 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 51:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Accuracy by game2 of 2