DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Azure Ray
Lunasignature
lou · 23 games
Lion
fy · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Faith_bian · 19 games
Techiessignature
天命 · 18 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
fy · 16 games
Magnussignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 16 games
Heroic
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 17 games
Lionsignature
Scofield · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Davai · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 10 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
KJ · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 9 games
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 8 games
Gyrocopter
KJ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 479 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 313 bans
Pangolier
271 picks · 385 bans
Mars
257 picks · 344 bans
Hoodwink
256 picks · 142 bans
Techies
256 picks · 172 bans
Magnus
249 picks · 467 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:29
Azure Ray 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Heroic in 44:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordlou
SvenK1
RazorFaith_bian
Puck4nalog
LeshracOri
BatriderDavai
Tinyfy
ClockwerkScofield
Mirana天命
Nature's ProphetKJ
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Azure Ray 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Heroic in 47:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenlou
MedusaK1
LinaOri
Pangolier4nalog
Death ProphetFaith_bian
KunkkaDavai
Tinyfy
GyrocopterKJ
Pugna天命
HoodwinkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 70%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2