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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
86%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 13 games
85%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 12 games
83%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 8 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 6 games
100%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 5 games
60%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
364 picks · 318 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
325 picks · 313 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 476 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
269 picks · 382 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 336 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
255 picks · 142 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
255 picks · 171 bans
55%
Magnus
Magnus
249 picks · 462 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:31
Team Spirit 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusLarl
37% · 42 games41% · 20 games
Outworld DestroyerXm
Outworld Destroyer
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
54% · 55 games59% · 126 games
AlchemistAme
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaCollapse
50% · 81 game56% · 210 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickMira
42% · 343 games57% · 203 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
42% · 160 games51% · 122 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed8:32
Team Spirit 59%Xtreme Gaming 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 28:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
55% · 87 games54% · 119 games
Naga SirenAme
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
51% · 157 games46% · 24 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Doom
DoomCollapse
49% · 186 games45% · 224 games
TimbersawXxs
Timbersaw
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
71% · 6 games48% · 124 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
51% · 94 games46% · 39 games
Nyx AssassinXinQ
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2