DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 18 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
Rubicksignature
Topson · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 10 games
Doomsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
364 picks · 318 bans
Vengeful Spirit
325 picks · 313 bans
Centaur Warrunner
324 picks · 476 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 382 bans
Mars
257 picks · 336 bans
Hoodwink
255 picks · 142 bans
Techies
255 picks · 171 bans
Magnus
249 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 76%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total57% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:9
Tundra Esports 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistTopson
PangolierYopaj
Troll WarlordPure~
SvenArteezy
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
AxeSabeRLight-
Techies9Class
LionThiolicor
Crystal MaidenWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct13:28
Tundra Esports 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePure~
LunaArteezy
SnapfireTopson
Dragon KnightSabeRLight-
Viperlaise
InvokerYopaj
PhoenixWhitemon
MiranaThiolicor
Tiny9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2