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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 26 games
85%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 18 games
72%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 18 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
82%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
88%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 16 games
56%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 13 games
69%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 12 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ari · 11 games
55%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 9 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 9 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 9 games
89%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
362 picks · 317 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 310 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 484 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 379 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
252 picks · 142 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
251 picks · 170 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
250 picks · 459 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
250 picks · 325 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 65%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
Team Falcons 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMalr1ne
46% · 138 games55% · 67 games
SlarkTimado
Slark
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
50% · 45 games52% · 117 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Mars
MarsATF
51% · 158 games50% · 130 games
Primal Beastbzm
Primal Beast
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
55% · 173 games45% · 38 games
IoCeb
Io
Bane
BaneCr1t-
50% · 37 games45% · 199 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed15:44
Team Falcons 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 276 games46% · 14 games
Arc WardenTimado
Arc Warden
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
54% · 66 games46% · 122 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
58% · 196 games45% · 344 games
RubickWisper
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
56% · 217 games48% · 158 games
BatriderCeb
Batrider
Bane
BaneCr1t-
48% · 36 games44% · 153 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2