?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 16 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
80%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 15 games
67%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 14 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
36%

Team Liquid

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
61%
Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 11 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 10 games
60%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 10 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Boxi · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 316 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 304 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 483 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
267 picks · 373 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
249 picks · 139 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
248 picks · 317 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
248 picks · 169 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:8
1w Team 49%Team Liquid 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
48% · 294 games50% · 320 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerChira JUNIOR
50% · 123 games54% · 374 games
Doom33
Doom
Magnus
MagnusCloud
47% · 260 games50% · 308 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
48% · 603 games52% · 339 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingRESPECT
47% · 355 games55% · 294 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed10:31
1w Team 50%Team Liquid 50%
The model gave 50% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerMunkushi~
54% · 117 games45% · 162 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
47% · 232 games48% · 77 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Tiny
TinyChira JUNIOR
58% · 226 games52% · 178 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Tusk
TuskRESPECT
46% · 200 games47% · 473 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Lion
Lionswedenstrong
51% · 196 games54% · 81 game
MuertaBoxi
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2