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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 12 games
92%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 12 games
92%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
91%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 10 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
75%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 15 games
87%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
50%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
359 picks · 316 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 304 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 483 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
267 picks · 373 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
249 picks · 139 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
248 picks · 317 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
248 picks · 169 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:19
Team Spirit 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
51% · 56 games48% · 204 games
TerrorbladePure~
Terrorblade
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
50% · 258 games55% · 380 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
49% · 212 games55% · 44 games
Night StalkerMinD_ContRoL
Night Stalker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
47% · 110 games51% · 382 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
43% · 439 games56% · 65 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:29
Team Spirit 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 48:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
54% · 108 games52% · 160 games
LunaPure~
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawCollapse
44% · 175 games46% · 20 games
Ogre MagiMinD_ContRoL
Ogre Magi
Kunkka
KunkkaLarl
42% · 73 games54% · 225 games
TinyTopson
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
50% · 129 games52% · 262 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
50% · 216 games51% · 34 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2