DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SabeRLight- · 12 games
Vengeful Spirit
Cr1t- · 12 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Dawnbreaker
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 9 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Arteezy · 9 games
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
359 picks · 316 bans
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 304 bans
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 483 bans
Pangolier
267 picks · 373 bans
Hoodwink
249 picks · 139 bans
Magnus
248 picks · 457 bans
Mars
248 picks · 317 bans
Techies
248 picks · 169 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:20
Shopify Rebellion 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 41:54.
Game 2prediction correct32:16
Shopify Rebellion 70%Aurora Gaming 30%
The model gave 70% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 40:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 70%
Accuracy by game1 of 2