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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Zayac · 23 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 20 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 20 games
85%
Mars
Marsoften banned
pma · 19 games
37%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Niku · 18 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 17 games
53%

Aurora Gaming

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 53 games
66%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 50 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 46 games
63%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 39 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 37 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 35 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
532 picks · 325 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 581 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 357 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
422 picks · 225 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 242 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 473 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
330 picks · 853 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
321 picks · 831 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:25
Natus Vincere 39%Aurora Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
57% · 307 games51% · 242 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNiku
43% · 89 games48% · 403 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Axe
Axepma
48% · 257 games49% · 167 games
PhoenixWs
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
49% · 337 games50% · 303 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Silencer
SilencerRiddys
56% · 213 games47% · 88 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction correct16:35
Natus Vincere 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 49:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
59% · 130 games53% · 221 game
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNiku
47% · 564 games45% · 140 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Magnus
Magnuspma
57% · 79 games45% · 490 games
PuckMikoto
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
47% · 465 games48% · 186 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Lion
LionRiddys
48% · 184 games52% · 385 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct19:49
Natus Vincere 40%Aurora Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 46:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
Timbersawpma
56% · 288 games54% · 377 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Monkey King
Monkey Kinggotthejuice
48% · 261 game51% · 174 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
48% · 465 games50% · 386 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Lion
LionDaze
47% · 124 games48% · 110 games
VenomancerKaori
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixRiddys
46% · 371 game52% · 462 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 67%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3